COSMO — Stochastic Mine Planning Laboratory

Open pit mine design and long-term production scheduling is a critically important part of mining ventures as it deals with the efficient management of cash flows in the order of hundreds of millions of dollars. Mine design and production scheduling determines both the economic outcome of a project and the technical plan to be followed from mine development to mine closure. It is an intricate and complex problem to address due to its large scale, unavailability of a truly optimal net present value solution, and uncertainty in the key parameters involved (geological and mining, financial, and environmental). Geological uncertainty is a major contributor in failing to meet project expectations in projects, as recognized in several studies worldwide, while mining costs and equipment availability are additional contributors.

This research project focused on two key interrelated elements of open pit mine design: (i) A new risk-based mathematical framework for designing the so-called pushbacks within an open pit under geological uncertainty, and (ii) new ‘high-order’ spatial mathematical models of geological uncertainty generating inputs for (i), suitable for modelling complex non-linear, non-Gaussian geological processes and orebodies. The aim of the above research was to contribute new methods to the Canadian mining industry that would contribute changing the way we currently approach problem-solving in the field and impact on (a) risk management and maximization of return on investment; (b) economic performance and sustainability; (c) enhancement of production and product supply; (d) objective and technically defendable decision-making; and (e) training highly qualified personnel. In addition, the outputs from this research program contributed major aspects of “stochastic mine planning”.

Research in Program 2 stems from this one and also Program 3.